I wrote three months ago that “Netanyahu and Sinwar have common interests in prolonging the war.” Incredibly, but for the details, the analysis remains the same.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’.’s stated goals since Oct. 7, 2023, have been incoherent, but his catchphrases have evolved. It started with the nebulous “wiping out Hamas” and the undefined “total victory.” Only after prodding was “the return of the hostages” added.
After 22 months, Netanyahu no longer considers the return of the hostages a war goal — even though 74 percent of the Israeli population supports a hostage deal and the end of the war.
Netanyahu has failed to delineate a “day after” plan or create the conditions that would enable a credible “day after” plan.
After the ill-conceived Trump plan was announced in March, which called for the evacuation of all Gazans while a Trump Gaza “riviera” was built, Netanyahu adopted the removal of all Gazans as an additional war goal. Trump has moved away from his own concept, but Netanyahu and his ultra-nationalist coalition clings to the vision of a Palestinian-free Gaza.
As a result, Netanyahu has continued a war, despite the Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, telling the Cabinet in June that further operations would endanger the hostages and serve no military purpose. More recently, Zamir implored the Cabinet to devise a political strategy. Netanyahu and the Cabinet have nothing to offer other than to float the annexation of Gaza.
In the meantime, Israel’s status as a pariah nation is being solidified daily. Netanyahu believes he is the state and has no regard for the consequences of his actions. He persists in a war with no further purpose — in which Israeli casualties increase and Hamas is strengthened every day — for three purely personal reasons.
First, Netanyahu’s coalition is dependent on far-right ultra-nationalist parties, who threaten to bolt the coalition if there is a hostage deal and an end to the war. Second, Netanyahu knows that he will lose the next election and will be out of power. Third, if he loses power, he will no longer be able to put off his corruption trial on charges that predate the war. He could go to jail.
So his best hope to continue the war and hope he can blame Oct. 7 on everyone else. Less than 40 percent of Israelis now trust Netanyahu.
But let’s not forget Hamas. Like Netanyahu, Hamas has its own interests in prolonging the conflict. With pressure on Netanyahu from Trump, Hamas could end the conflict by agreeing to return the Israeli hostages and self-exiling a nominal set of leaders.
Hamas’s first instinct, however, is survival as a political force. Most of the original Hamas leadership from the start of the war — Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Dief, Marwan Issa and Mohammed Sinwar — have been killed. The second string, however, appears to have done a good job in recruitment, by means of cash payments and intimidation.
On Oct. 7, Hamas had roughly 30,000 fighters divided into five brigades, 24 battalions and multiple specialized forces — including air, maritime and special operations. It was estimated to have 30,000 rockets (not missiles), which made Hamas larger than some European militaries.
By August 2024, Israel claimed to have destroyed 21 of Hamas’s 24 battalions, and killed about 20,000 fighters (which are subsumed in the reported Palestinian death totals). But recent reports indicate that Hamas has recruited an equal number since Israel broke the ceasefire in March 2025.
The majority of Gazans are under 30. With no economy amidst the rubble, most are looking for ways to support their families and obtain food. Hamas has an easy recruitment base.
Hamas also recognizes that Israel’s international situation is being degraded daily by viral images of the suffering and starvation of the populace — a situation created by Netanyahu’s unilateral cut-off of most humanitarian aid into Gaza in March. Regardless of any role Hamas may play in hijacking aid, the humanitarian travesty is harmful to Gazans and is a self-inflicted injury on Israel by Netanyahu that Hamas is happy exploit.
Further, France, the U.K. and Canada have announced that they will recognize the State of Palestine in September without an end to the war, though that recognition will go the Palestinian Authority, not Hamas.
The Hamas massacres of Oct. 7 — which Sinwar knew would lead to massive Israeli retaliation — has led to devastation and destruction in Gaza beyond anyone’s imagination.
Netanyahu, knowing his political career could be over, clings to power and is willing to sacrifice Israel’s international standing and the lives of Israeli soldiers to remain in power. Hamas brought calamity on the people of Gaza and knows that it too would lose a free election, and thus similarly seeks to prolong the conflict.
In the meantime, Gazans and Israelis suffer.
Jonathan D. Strum is an international lawyer and businessman based in Washington and the Middle East and formerly an adjunct professor of Israeli law at Georgetown University Law Center.
