When Affirm Holdings (AFRM) reports fiscal fourth quarter earnings on Thursday, its 2026 guidance will be in the spotlight. Management’s outlook for Affirm stock will be tied to a waning relationship with retailer Walmart (WMT) as well as a changing product mix.
The consumer financing firm reports earnings after the market close on Thursday. The San Francisco-based company has been gaining share in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) market. With BNPL options, consumers pay off purchases in monthly installments, either with low interest or none at all.
Affirm stock has gained 26% in 2025 with some volatility. Heading into the Affirm earnings report, Wall Street analysts are looking at gross merchandise volume from merchants as well as RLTC (revenue less transaction costs) margins as key financial metrics. Management’s fiscal 2026 outlook for GMV and RLTC margins could move Affirm stock following the earnings report.
Affirm Stock: Walmart Impact Eyed
Affirm’s product mix has been shifting to more BNPL plans with no interest. Instead, Affirm garners revenue from fees paid by merchants. Zero percent interest BNPL plans generally have lower RLTC than interest-bearing products. But, zero interest plans attract higher credit quality consumers and usually buy bigger items at stores.
The other wild card in Affirms 2026 guidance involves Walmart, which had been a key partner. Walmart, though, has shifted most of its BNPL business to Klarna (KLAR), a rival of Affirm.
Losing Walmart is expected to lower Affirm’s gross merchandise volume. The big question is by how much.
“Affirm’s fiscal 2026 outlook will be in focus with Walmart treatment the main source of debate,” said Morgan Stanley analyst James Faucette in a report. “Walmart is a key factor for the 2026 outlook, but we expect the impact to be more muted than investors appreciate.”
Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch said in a report: “There has been growing concern around potential volume declines at Walmart given the recent inroads Klarna has made with OnePay. While risks around Walmart volumes have been well-telegraphed, some investors may still be surprised. The impact on shares will be driven by the commentary around the broader implications and the level of the total growth guide.”
BNPL Competition Heats Up
Deutsche Bank analyst Nate Svensson said in a report: “We see risk that Affirm’s initial 2026 GMV guide comes in below current street estimates, but note that Affirm tends to guide conservatively to start their fiscal years.”
He added: “Growth in zero percent (BNPL plans) may create some pressure to RLTC margins, but we see growth here.”
Aside from Klarna, Affirm competes with Sezzle (SEZL), Block‘s (XYZ) Afterpay and PayPal Holdings (PYPL).in fiscal Q4, analysts predict a 12-cent adjusted profit versus a 14-cent loss a year earlier. Revenue is expected to rise 27% to $837 million. Gross merchandise volume is expected to come in at $9.61 billion, up 33%.
Affirm’s new debit card has been gaining traction with consumers. In fiscal Q4, analysts model debit card revenue of $58 million.
The Affirm debit card links to consumer checking accounts at banks or Affirm’s Money Account. It allows consumers to pay for purchases right away or request to pay for purchases over time. Analysts expect the debit card to help Affirm further penetrate in-store shopping.
Affirm Stock Technical Ratings
At William Blair, analyst Andrew Jeffrey holds an upbeat view. “We expect gross merchandise volume upside after Shopify‘s (SHOP) strong results, and we should gain insight into what Apple Pay (AAPL) could mean in late fiscal 2026. Although Walmart could be a GMV headwind, we contend that momentum at top customers Shopify and Amazon.com (AMZN) will at least offset the pressure.”
Meanwhile, AFRM stock holds an IBD Composite Rating of 86, according to IBD Stock Checkup.
IBD’s Composite Rating combines five separate proprietary ratings into one easy-to-use rating. The best growth stocks have a Composite Rating of 90 or better.
Further, Affirm stock has an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of B. That rating analyzes price and volume changes in a stock over the past 13 weeks of trading. Its current rating indicates more funds are buying than selling.
Follow Reinhardt Krause on X, formerly Twitter, @reinhardtk_tech for updates on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and cloud computing.
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