Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a prominent election forecaster, moved its rating of Virginia’s gubernatorial race from “lean Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”
The rating change is good news for Democratic nominee and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who has consistently led Republican nominee and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R ) in polling throughout the campaign.
Spanberger leads Earle-Sears 47.1 percent to 38.7 percent, according to the Decision Desk HQ average. In April, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the race from a “toss-up” to “lean Democratic.”
Republicans have voiced concerns over their chances in the race in recent months. A Roanoke College poll released last month showed Earle-Sears seemingly narrowing Spanberger’s lead from 17 points to 7 points. However, critics note that the poll was weighted toward turnout in the 2021 gubernatorial election, when a larger percentage of GOP voters cast ballots.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved next year’s gubernatorial race in Maine closer to Republicans, changing the rating from “likely Democratic” to “lean Democratic.” In Iowa, the election forecaster moved that state’s governor race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
