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Conservative influencers and personalities furious at the Trump administration’s announcement that it will not release any more information surrounding disgraced financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein have repeatedly issued a warning: This will cost Republicans in the midterms.
Commentator Liz Wheeler said last week that President Trump, in dismissing anger about the Epstein matter, was misreading his base and it could show at the ballot box. Former Trump adviser and commentator Steve Bannon estimated it would cost Republicans “10 percent of the MAGA movement” and cause the GOP to “lose 40 seats” in the midterms, and the presidency in 2028.
The theory is that disappointment over the Epstein decision will depress voter enthusiasm for Trump, and by extension all Republicans, resulting in some voters who care about the issue staying home or even voting for a Democrat instead. (The Justice Department and FBI last week asserted in a memo last week that Epstein did die by suicide and did not have a client list. Officials declined to release any more details, saying information under seal “served only to protect victims and did not expose any additional third-parties to allegations of illegal wrongdoing.”)
The midterms, though, are a long way away — and national Republican strategists are, for now, largely dismissing the prospect of the Epstein files being much of a factor.
One national Republican strategist I spoke to stressed that no candidate will be making Epstein a main issue, and predicted that the effect of any disillusionment with Trump on the part of voters would be miniscule. Democrats, the strategist thought, would have little ground to message on Epstein given that major Democratic figures like former President Clinton were friendly with the financier.
But while no one expects Epstein to be a top motivating issue in 2026, or the kind of thing you’ll see in TV ads, it could play into Democrats’ major political theme, a national Democratic strategist told me: The sense that Trump and Republicans have betrayed voters who were counting on the new GOP trifecta ushering in transparency and combating the elites — be it through their extending Trump’s tax cuts and threatening Medicaid coverage, or through keeping information about Epstein sealed.
Bannon articulated that concern, saying that the handling of the Epstein matter has “disheartened the hardest core populist” base.
And we’re already seeing Democrats and those on the left seize on the Epstein messaging in hopes of pulling on that thread — and poking at Trump.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) leaned in on the matter on Monday, saying Trump administration officials either “intentionally lied” or that the files contain information “that could be damaging to the Trump administration.” Rep. Mark Veasey (D-Texas) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) each said they plan to introduce a resolution demanding the release of the Epstein files.
Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.), meanwhile, expressed his Epstein-files-release message in song.
House Judiciary Committee ranking member Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) has called for the Trump administration to release more material, saying panel Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) should subpoena Attorney General Pam Bondi, FBI Director Kash Patel, and FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino. My colleague Mychael Schnell caught an anti-Trump “No Kings” protest over the weekend with a new messaging line: “Release the files.”
We don’t have any hard data in terms of polling so far indicating that Trump and Republicans are in trouble due to the Epstein matter — but judging by the messaging from the A-list line up of MAGA influencers at Turning Point USA’s Student Action Summit over the weekend, many of whom unloaded over the Epstein matter, the right-wing base is still furious.
The biggest question for the midterms, then, will be how much staying power that fury has — and how much the conservative commentators and figures who long riled up their base and pushed for more disclosures will keep bringing it up.
Trump gave pretty explicit orders to his “‘boys’ and, in some cases, ‘gals’” in a Truth Social post on Saturday to stop attacking Bondi, expressing exasperation with Epstein still being in the news and discrediting whatever might be in the files by accusing “crooked” Democrats of “writing the files” on Epstein.
Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk — who, according to CNN, got a call from Trump over the weekend telling him to cut out the Epstein talk — got the message.
“Plenty was said this last weekend at our event about Epstein. Honestly, I’m done talking about Epstein for the time being. I’m gonna trust my friends in the administration, I’m gonna trust my friends in the government to do what needs to be done, solve it, ball’s in their hands,” Kirk said on his radio show on Monday.
Conspiracy theorist Alex Jones of Infowars is grappling with Trump’s suggestion that the Democrats might have doctored the Epstein files.
“I dropped the ball. I didn’t even think about the fact — I’m like, oh yeah, they’ve had the list, they’ve had the files for years, the Democrats would take stuff out and destroy it. Well, that’s obvious. They would leave and put in and twist what they wanted,” Jones said in a video posted to X on Sunday.
But Jones added: “This has put the Trump administration into a mega, massive crisis. And Trump at press conferences, the rest of it, saying don’t ask questions, triggers the ultimate Streisand effect and is insane.”
And activist Laura Loomer isn’t letting up, either. On Sunday night, long after Trump’s post, she called for a special counsel to examine the handling of the Epstein files in an interview with Politico Playbook.
Another big question: What does Bongino do? Multiple reports said he was threatening to leave the Trump administration over the Epstein matter if Bondi didn’t leave — and if he went back to his national radio show and spilled on his fury over the Epstein decision, that could fan the MAGA flames.
It’s possible, though, that feud cools off.
But as much as national Republicans may dismiss the potential impact on the midterms, it’s looking more and more like the Epstein outrage could be an inflection point for MAGA — and the anti-establishment, conspiracy-curious sensibilities in it. We’re now more than a week into the Epstein fallout, and it’s still getting major attention in both conservative circles and the mainstream media, despite Trump’s attempts to shut down the rebellion.
“Trump’s persuasive power over his base, especially during his first term, was almost magical. Calling out obvious mistakes he made would get you an ass chewing. ‘Trust the plan!’ The reaction on Epstein should thus be startling to him. No one is buying it. No one is dropping it,” right-wing activist Mike Cernovich posted on X.
Welcome to The Movement, a weekly newsletter about the influences and debates on the right in Washington. I’m Emily Brooks, House leadership reporter at The Hill, with an assist this week from my colleague Mychael Schnell. Tell us what’s on your radar: ebrooks@thehill.com and mschnell@thehill.com. Follow us on X: @emilybrooksnews, @mychaelschnell.
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THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST JEROME POWELL
Trump is still angry with Fed Chair Jerome Powell — and others in his ranks appear to be joining the fight.
The president has not let up on his criticism of Powell, calling the Central Bank chief a “knucklehead,” “stupid guy” and “really bad” — all in one breath during a faith luncheon with business leaders and economic officials on Monday, prompting laughs from individuals in the room. Earlier this month, Trump said Powell should “resign immediately.”
Nowadays, it’s not just the president — other key administration officials and White House allies are going after Powell as Trump grows increasingly frustrated with the Fed chair’s posture on interest rates.
White House senior trade adviser Peter Navarro, for example, in a recent interview accused Powell of not understanding “Trumpnomics,” accusing the Fed chair of styming U.S. economic growth.
“So, here’s the deal. It’s like in the first term, when President Trump was in, Powell gets up to the chair, and the first thing he starts doing is raising rates, because he doesn’t understand how powerful Trumpnomics is and be able to generate strong growth without generating inflation,” Navarro said during an interview on John Catsimatidis radio show “Cats Roundtable” on WABC 770 AM.
Russ Vought, the director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), has also jumped into the fray, slamming Powell for plans to renovate the Central Bank.
“The President is extremely troubled by your management of the Federal Reserve System,” Vought wrote in a letter on Thursday. “Instwad of attempting to right the Fed’s fiscal ship, you have plowed ahead with an ostentatious overhaul of your Washington D.C. headquarters.”
And James Blair, White House deputy chief of staff, last week said he expressed his “grave concern with the public allegations by others that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was not honest with the Senate Banking Committee in his late June testimony about design features of the Federal Reserve’s Headquarters Renovation Project.”
“At a time when the Fed is running an operating deficit, maintains high interest rates, and is receiving significant public scrutiny, one has to wonder whether the so-called ‘Taj Mahal near the National Mall’ project is in the best interests of the board & the public it serves,” he wrote in a lengthy thread on X.
Related: “Will Bessent serve as Fed chair, Treasury secretary at the same time?” from The Hill’s Tobias Burns
TWO HOUSE SPEAKERS, ADMIN OFFICIALS, AND MORE AT HILL NATION SUMMIT
The whole team at The Hill is very excited to dig deeper with some of Washington’s biggest newsmakers on Wednesday at the Hill Nation Summit, presented with our partners at NewsNation.
I’ll be sitting down with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — two figures I’ve closely covered and tried to understand as a House reporter over the last three-and-a-half years.
Fellow House reporter Mychael Schnell will sit down with gubernatorial hopeful Rep. John James (R-Mich.) and the ever-bubbly House GOP Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-Mich.).
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and White House Trade adviser Peter Navarro will join — and on the Democratic side, we’ll hear from David Hogg, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), and more.
The summit comes six months into Trump’s second term – and from the future of the GOP to how Democrats are struggling to rebuild after their crushing 2024 loss, there’s tons to cover. We hope you’ll join us either in person at the Willard (would love to say hi!), or by following along online. Request to attend here.
Related: “Trump 2.0 hits 6 months: Hill Nation Summit explores GOP control, Dem rebuilding” from The Hill’s Mychael Schnell
ON MY CALENDAR
- Tuesday, July 15: Americans for Prosperity hosts a “One Big Beautiful Bash” at its Capitol Hill “Freedom Embassy” to celebrate tax cut extensions in the GOP megabill, featuring Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), AFP CEO Emily Seidel, AFP Government Affairs Officer Brent Gardner, Fox News Contributor Guy Benson, and Townhall.com Editor Katie Pavlich. Starts at 4:30 p.m.
- Wednesday, July 16: The Hill hosts a full-day Hill Nation Summit in Washington, D.C. featuring Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), Homeland Security Secretary Krisi Noem, David Hogg, and many more. Request to attend here.
- Friday, July 18: The American Legislative Affairs Council (ALEC) hosts its annual meeting in Indianapolis, Ind. Mainstage speakers include Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts on “Where America and the Conservative Movement are Going.”
- Tuesday, July 22: The Heritage Foundation hosts its 2025 B.C. Lee Lecture featuring Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) on U.S. engagement with China.
THREE MORE THINGS
- Elon Musk unfollowed anti-democracy right-wing thinker Curtis Yarvin on X after the New York Times reported that Musk had consulted Yarvin about his idea for a third party, according to the “Big Tech Alert” account that tracks public figures’ follows and unfollows. According to the piece, the two did not have an expansive relationship; Yarvin said in January that he had not met Musk. The incident reminded me of a tidbit from a lengthy New Yorker profile of Yarvin last month: “Yarvin is not known for his discretion. He has a habit of sharing private correspondence, as I discovered when he started sending me unsolicited screenshots of text messages and e-mails he’d exchanged with his wife, his friends, a fact checker at the Times Magazine, and someone nominated to the new Administration.”
- Marc Short, former chief of staff to former Vice President Pence, predicted on NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday that GOP divisions will be more apparent in the coming months: “I think the divisions are actually going to become more exacerbated in the second half of this year, Kristen. Because now that you’ve passed the one Big Beautiful Bill, you’re going to see the policy differences between the isolationists and the interventionists come forward. You’re going to see him now again pushing forward on more or less the Bernie Sanders trade policy that Donald Trump has embraced that I don’t think all Republicans are in support of. And so in the first half of the year, much of that has been muted because everything was sort of put on pause.”
- Tucker Carlson revealed that after he got fired from Fox News in 2023, he sweet-talked the Daily Mail into not using video of his wife dropping an f-bomb. Sitting down with podcaster Alex Clark, Carlson said his wife’s reaction to the firing was “Thank God” — because she believed the network was anti-Christian. When the Daily Mail caught up with them, Calrson was gracious in describing the situation to the tabloid — but his wife said to the camera, “F— Fox News.” Calrlson called an editor to ask them not to use that clip.
WHAT I’M READING
- The New York Times’s Ken Bensinger and Robert Draper: Laura Loomer, Trump’s Blunt Instrument
- Wall Street Journal’s Shalini Ramachandran, Scott Patterson, and Katherine Long: The Fight Between Musk Acolytes and the White House for Control of DOGE
- Washington Post’s Danielle Paquette: How the Trump assasination attempt changed these rallygoers
- Axios’s Marc Caputo: 3 ways Trump might try to defuse the Epstein mess
