NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks wobbled lower on Friday as Wall Street questioned whether the U.S. job market has slowed by just enough to get the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to help the economy, or by so much that a downturn may be on the way.
After rising to an early gain, the S&P 500 erased it and fell 0.3% below the all-time high it set the day before. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 220 points, or 0.5%, after swinging between an early gain of nearly 150 points and a loss of 400. The Nasdaq composite edged down by less than 0.1%.
The action was more decisive in the bond market, where Treasury yields tumbled after a report from the Labor Department said U.S. employers hired fewer workers in August than economists expected. The government also said that earlier estimates for June and July overstated hiring by 21,000 jobs.
The disappointing numbers follow last month’s discouraging jobs update, along with other lackluster reports in intervening weeks, and traders are now betting on a 100% probability that the Fed will cut its main interest rate at its next meeting on Sept. 17, according to data from CME Group. Investors love such cuts because they can give a kickstart to the economy, but the Fed has held off on them because they can also give inflation more fuel.
So far this year, the Fed has been more worried about the potential of inflation worsening because of President Donald Trump’s tariffs than about the job market. But Friday’s job numbers could push the Fed to consider cutting rates in two weeks by a steeper amount than usual, said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.
“This week has been a story of a slowing labor market, and today’s data was the exclamation point,” according to Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Strong hiring for health care jobs had been helping to support the overall market, “but with it now showing some tangible signs of decline, the foundation underneath the labor market seems to be cracking,” said Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock.
While the data on the job market is disappointing, it’s still not so weak that it’s screaming a recession is here, and the U.S. economy is continuing to grow. A big question for investors is whether the job market can remain in a balance where it’s not so strong that it prevents cuts to interest rates but also not so weak that the economy falls off.
Uncertainty about that helped lead to Friday’s swings in the stock market. Wall Street needs things to go as hoped because it already sent stock prices to records amid expectations for a Goldilocks scenario where interest rates ease, and the economy keeps chugging along.
