Oil prices dropped to their lowest in a week on Monday as markets digested OPEC+’s decision to implement another significant output increase in September.
US Oil Majors Reign Supreme as Competitors All Lose Market Edge
– US oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron are increasingly pulling ahead of their European peers, with both companies reporting their highest ever production in Q2 2025, at 4.63 million boe/d and 3.4 million boe/d, respectively. – In stark contrast to US peers, Shell’s production saw an annual decline of 4.2% to 2.65 million boe/d whilst BP dipped by 3.3% from a year ago to 2.3 million boe/d, leaving the French TotalEnergies as the only large European oil firm to see higher hydrocarbon output. – Moreover, ExxonMobil successfully fended off pressure from activist investors such as Elliott Investment Management, all the while the same company is pressuring BP to divest $20 billion in assets and cut net debt to $14-18 billion by 2027 (vs $26 billion now). – Saudi Aramco is faring even worse than European oil majors, losing 14% of share value since the beginning of the year, as investors have taken note of lower dividend payouts in 2025 and higher debt requirements to meet the country’s $92.3 per barrel fiscal breakeven price.
Market Movers
– Saudi Arabia’s national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) posted a 22% decline in its Q2 net profit to $22.7 billion, with its average realized crude oil price dipping to $66.7 per barrel, down from $76.3 per barrel in Q1. – US midstream firm MPLX (NYSE:MPLX) agreed to buy Northwind Midstream for $2.38 billion in cash to expand its sour gas processing portfolio across the Permian Basin, in anticipation of more output coming from New Mexico. – India’s leading energy firm Reliance Industries (NSE:RELIANCE) launched a JV with UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) and state-run ONGC to explore the GS-2022/2 block offshore, increasing BP’s Indian exposure. – US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) signed a memorandum of understanding with Libya’s state oil firm NOC to conduct geological studies in four offshore blocks, marking Exxon’s return to the country after a full withdrawal in 2013.
Tuesday, August 05, 2025
In a surprise move, the US-India trading relationship has become the main talking point of this week, with the Indian government pledging to protect its economic interests and calling Trump’s threats ‘unjustified’. The Indian reaction has weakened concerns that Russian oil supply could see an immediate impact come August 8, adding some downside pressure on oil prices as the OPEC+ announcement for September already nudged ICE Brent closer to $68 per barrel.
OPEC+ Scraps All Voluntary Cuts. OPEC+ countries agreed to raise September production by 547,000 b/d, marking a full expedited reversal of the oil group’s 2.2 million b/d voluntary cuts, citing robust summer demand and low commercial crude inventories globally as main reasons to unwind further. BP’s Giant Brazil Find Boosts the Major’s Morale. UK oil major BP (NYSE:BP) stated it discovered a supergiant oil and gas field in Brazil, hitting a more than 500m wide net oil pay with its Bumerangue exploration well in the offshore Santos Basin, potentially its largest find in 25 years.
Chevron’s Venezuela Return Will be Swift. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) expects its Venezuelan oil exports to resume in August already, marking an unusually swift turnaround following the US Treasury Department’s waiver, even if Chevron expects a gradual return to output of 250,000 b/d.
No Rare Earths Left for Defense Companies. According to WSJ, Chinese authorities have limited the flow of rare earth minerals to Western defense manufacturers, introducing new control measures such as requiring potential buyers to submit product line photos as proof of their civilian use. Ukraine Strikes Two Russian Refineries. Ukrainian drone attacks targeted Russia’s Novokuibyshevsk and Ryazan refineries, both operated by the state-run oil major Rosneft, fully halting the former as the damaged CDU-11 refining unit accounted for most of the 160,000 b/d plant’s capacity.
Panama Clamps Down on Old Tankers. Panama has stopped accepting oil tankers older than 15 years in its maritime registry, seeking to improve transparency amidst an influx of shadow fleet tankers on its books, making the American nation the largest flag state for shadow fleet vessels.
Azerbaijan Gets Stuck with Contaminated Oil. The Turkish port of Ceyhan declared force majeure on its exports of Azeri crude, claiming it was ‘materially affected’ by the organic chlorine contamination in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and its storage tanks, unable to load on-spec oil. Trinidad Locks in Mega Deal with Exxon. As we have reported earlier, the government of Trinidad and Tobago has agreed to award US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) with seven deepwater blocks off the east coast of the Caribbean nation, abutting Exxon’s Stabroek block in Guyana.
Heatwaves Ratchet Up Asian Coal Imports. Asian imports of seaborne thermal coal rose to 70.7 million tonnes in July, up a hefty 12% compared to June, as heatwave-stricken Northeast Asian countries such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan ramped up purchases to replenish stocks.
Mexico Wants to Let Pemex Free. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she would seek to wean the country’s national oil company Pemex off government support from 2027 onwards, aiming to bring the company’s debt to $77 billion by 2030, down from $99 billion as of end-June 2025. China Churns Out Copper as If There’s No Tomorrow. China’s production of refined copper is set to reach an all-time high in 2025, with analysts expecting another 10% annual supply growth rate even though domestic demand is only up 4%, taking the country’s share of global output to 57%.
Japanese Power Prices Spiral Out of Control. Spot electricity prices on the Japan Electric Power Exchange soared to a record high of ¥16.9 per kWh ($0.11/kWh) this week, as severe heatwaves strain Japan’s power grid, barely a week after last week’s earthquake temporarily halted energy imports.
Oil Theft Crackdown Boosts Nigeria’s Oil Output. Nigeria’s state oil regulator NUPRC boasted that the African country’s crude and condensate production surpassed 1.8 million b/d in July, potentially making it the first month since April 2020 to see such output after a widespread crackdown on oil theft and sabotage.
