Pop quiz for political junkies: What do Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) all have in common?
Answer: They are all two-term Republican governors who once made headlines as presidential contenders before failing utterly and fading into obscurity.
But “obscurity” only partially applies to DeSantis, since he is still the popular incumbent governor of the nation’s third-most-populated state. Given that term limits will end his governorship in January 2027, the website Florida Politics accurately summarized DeSantis’s unique situation when reporting a poll showing his approval rating at a net plus-six, reflecting “steady in-state support even as his national profile cools.”
“His national profile cools” is a phrase you would not have expected about DeSantis after Nov. 8, 2022, when he won reelection in a 19-point landslide in what was then still considered a top-tier battleground state.
The following day marked the most memorable media moment of the midterm elections. Rupert Murdoch’s New York Post published a full-page cover photo and headline calling DeSantis “DeFuture.” Translation: “DeWhite House future.” It was a flaming Murdoch spear aimed at then-former President Trump’s ego, but it facilitated what I call “DeCurse.”
The 2028 presidential campaign is now well underway. Potential candidates are conducting “invisible” primary campaigns — refining their messages, chasing headlines, growing their social media presence, identifying wealthy donors and recruiting top advisors. Media outlets are obsessed with horse-race candidate rankings, with political betting sites considered trending indicators.
Feeding the frenzy is the term-limited Trump, who recently teased his 2028 MAGA “dream ticket,” of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. In my writing on 2028, I have also injected Donald Trump Jr. into the mix — a fan-favorite among the MAGA faithful when Trump’s legacy and possibly a dynasty are looming large.
So, what happened to Ron “DeFuture?” Answer: President Trump. Second answer: Layers of “what not to do” lessons for campaign management and political science classes.
Although there is no DeSantis 2028 groundswell, he could eventually make a comeback. The young governor turns 47 in September. Nonetheless, for the rest of this decade, DeSantis’s moment appears “DeMinished.”
“Moment” as a political concept is crucial for understanding DeSantis’s presidential default. In 2022, months before his landslide reelection, the governor and his wife Casey — his closest and many say only political advisor — believed that 2024 was “their moment.”
In my June 16, 2022, piece headlined “Ron and Casey DeSantis: 2024’s formidable couple are ‘spooking’ Trump,” I discussed their White House aspirations, with Casey “cheerleading his presidential run.” Included was a telling quote from a June 11 Washington Post report about the potential 2024 candidates. As a Florida voter, I believed it accurately reflected DeSantis’s mindset then: “The couple believes that the governor’s skills are uniquely matched to the current political climate, and are wary of waiting six years, by which time the tides may have shifted.”
Considering the post-Jan. 6 climate of “it’s time to turn the page on Trump” that stretched into 2022, Ron and Casey correctly perceived a moment when an anti-Trump pendulum could have knocked him off the stage. Moreover, two Republican catchphrases were circulating about DeSantis: “Trump without the baggage” and “Trump without the crazy.”
Still, when early signs of a DeSantis defeat became obvious, he and his team were blinded by ambition and their sunny Florida star power. Throughout 2023, always trailing Trump in primary polls, the governor proved to be an unlikable candidate with multiple flaws. His no-nonsense personality was ill-suited for working a room and the spontaneity of a national campaign. DeSantis dropped out on Jan. 21, 2024 after placing a distant second in the Iowa caucuses.
DeSantis was reportedly warned by Trump, who in April 2023 said, “DeSantis will lose the cherished and massive MAGA vote and never be able to successfully run for office again.”
In the recent book “Revenge: The Inside Story of Trump’s Return to Power,” writer Alex Isenstadt reported that in early 2023, Trump said, “Is Ron really that stupid to run against me? Why doesn’t he just wait until 2028?” And later, Trump added, “Now nobody wants him” and “He’s done.”
Time will tell if that is true.
At least for 2028, DeSantis is a non-factor whose name is barely mentioned. A popular betting site shows the governor with only a 3 percent chance of winning the GOP nomination. A primary poll average has him supported by just 10.7 percent of Republican voters, although he leads Rubio, who has 8.6 percent.
Vance is the one now enjoying the “moment” dreamed about by Ron and Casey DeSantis. Years out, Vance has 49 percent support among Republican primary voters, and at two leading betting sites, a 55 percent and 53 percent chance of winning the nomination.
For DeSantis, nagging questions remain: Where will the former governor land in January 2027? How will he stay relevant and newsworthy? Will he join Trump’s administration? (He was briefly mentioned as a potential replacement for the then-embattled Pete Hegseth to run the Pentagon.)
DeSantis could run for Senate in 2028. However, he appointed Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody to fill Rubio’s vacant seat, and in 2026, Moody is running to complete Rubio’s term. She was recently endorsed by Trump, making her a shoo-in and more likely to run in 2028 for a full six-year term. Nevertheless, if by late 2027, DeSantis declares, “I want that job,” then cue the fireworks.
The Senate potentially offers DeSantis a cushy long-term perch with a chance to rebrand. He could build a national reputation and get reelected twice. Then, in 2044, at age 66, the White House gates may swing open. By then, MAGA might be history, and DeSantis could have his presidential moment — two decades later than predicted — if that is his destiny.
There are political lessons from the DeSantis story: Wear sunglasses when your star shines like the sun, because your eyes are blind to reality. Listen to alarm bells warning against entering the arena before your time, where a wild bull is waiting to gore you into obscurity.
Myra Adams is a political and religious opinion writer who served on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008.
