On Tuesday, Republicans lost their supermajority in the Iowa Senate.
Catelin Drey’s victory in Senate District 1 is not just a local upset — it is part of a growing national pattern of Democratic overperformance in state legislative special elections. Donald Trump carried this district by more than 11 points in 2024. Drey’s victory represents a 20-point swing toward the left — making this one of the most consequential state legislative flips of the year.
In fact, Democrats are overperforming their 2024 results by an average of nearly 16 points in state legislative races, according to The Downballot’s special elections Big Board. That is not a blip — it is the same kind of sustained overperformance that foreshadowed the blue wave in 2018.
The Iowa result joins a long list. In Pennsylvania’s SD-36, Democrats defied the odds and flipped a seat Trump carried by 15 points. In Oklahoma’s HD-71, Amanda Clinton won by 69 points in a district Kamala Harris carried by only 19 — a 50-point overperformance. Even in heavily Republican-leaning districts in Florida and Alabama, Democrats are running well ahead of expectations and are narrowing margins while forcing Republicans to pour resources into traditionally safe districts.
Special elections are a demonstration of energy, organization and the ability to mobilize voters in off-cycle conditions. For example, Sister District, a national organization that builds Democratic power in state legislatures, raised nearly $18,000 in small-dollar contributions, made more than 23,000 calls to Iowa voters, and secured 413 vote plans for Drey in just three weeks. She went on to win by 797 votes — proof of what can happen when national resources are directed strategically at the state level.
For decades, national Democratic strategy has focused overwhelmingly on federal races and a narrow set of so-called “swing states.” That approach has left state-level Democrats in the South and Midwest running on fumes, with skeletal staff and minimal infrastructure.
That neglect has real consequences. Republicans, who have invested heavily in state legislatures for decades, now hold disproportionate power in statehouses throughout the country. This gives them the ability to redraw congressional maps and further entrench themselves in power.
After a painful defeat in 2024, Democrats now face a choice: retreat to the familiar trope of short-term presidential battlegrounds, or commit to building a broader, more durable movement that cannot be easily washed away.
State legislatures are where policy is made, where democracy is shaped, and where the fight for power is unfolding right now. And the data from this year is clear: with organization and investment, Democrats can mobilize voters even in historically red corners.
If the party is serious about its future — and the future of American democracy — it must invest in state legislatures now.
Sarah Curmi is executive director of the progressive grassroots organization Sister District. Previously she served as vice president of state and local campaigns at EMILY’s List.
