Corn (ZCZ25) and soybean (ZSX25) futures bulls came out of hibernation last week, helped in part by the annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour results that showed diseases have cropped up in some regions of the Corn Belt as the growing season for corn and soybeans progresses.
December corn gained 6 cents a bushel last week, which is impressive given the early week losses. November soybean futures hit a two-month high on Friday and rose 15 1/2 cents for the week. September soybean meal (ZMU25) hit a nine-week high Friday and on the week rose $13.80 a ton. Soybean and bean oil (ZLZ25) markets closed at technically bullish weekly highs on Friday.
Pro Farmer crop scouts last week found a big U.S. corn crop, but one that’s projected by Pro Farmer to average 182.7 bushels per acre – 6.1 bu. below the USDA’s latest 188.8-bushel projection.
“When we put the yield estimate out, it comes with a plus or minus 1% for corn and a plus or minus 2% for soybeans, and that’s because we know things can change yet,” said Chip Flory, host of Farm Journal’s AgriTalk radio program and lead scout on the western leg of the tour. “The other thing is the yield models that we use give us a range, and then, based on conditions, we can move within that range with the yield estimate that we’re going to pull,” he said.
The 2025 growing season has seen disease crop up in many of the corn and soybean fields Pro Farmer scouts evaluated last week. “We know disease can speed up the maturation of plants, making it difficult to keep them healthy long enough for optimal grain fill before harvest,” said Lane Akre, Pro Farmer economist and lead scout on the eastern leg of the tour. “We are concerned diseases like southern rust and tar spot could negatively impact corn yields in some of these states during the next few weeks.” USDA’s August estimate for the U.S. soybean yield average is just slightly above what Pro Farmer scouts found in fields last week. Pro Farmer put the U.S. soybean yield average at 53.0 bu. per acre, with a total crop size of 4.246 billion bushels. By comparison, the USDA projects soybeans to average a record high 53.6 bu. per acre, with a total crop of 4.29 billion bushels.
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Corn and soybean traders will quickly digest the Pro Farmer Crop Tour results, and this week, move on to other market fundamentals. A big drop in the U.S. dollar index ($DXY) on Friday, following an easy lean on U.S. monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, will work in favor of the grain market bulls this week. Last week’s strong U.S. corn export sales and decent soybean export sales numbers will also be bullish elements for corn and soybean traders to focus on this week.
Weather in the Corn Belt is also becoming more price-friendly for soybean futures. Forecasters say drier weather in the Corn Belt in the next week or so should see most of the corn crop too far advanced to see significant declines in yields and corn maturation should be sped up by the continued lack of rain.
However, for the soybean crop, areas from southeastern Missouri to southern Illinois and western Kentucky will be dry through much of the next week and stress to crops and declines in soybean yields may increase as soil moisture is already short in those regions. Milder temperatures through the next week in the Midwest will somewhat mitigate the negative effects of decreasing soil moisture.
December soft red winter wheat futures (ZWZ25) languished last week, gaining 1/2 cent for the week. December hard red winter wheat (KEZ25) futures Friday closed at a contract low and for the week lost 7 1/2 cents. Technical selling in the winter wheat futures markets resumed Friday, amid firmly overall bearish chart postures as prices resumed their near-term downtrends. The U.S. winter wheat harvests are mostly complete and focus this week will be on spring wheat harvest progress in the Northern Plains. Look for the winter wheat futures markets to continue to look to the corn and soybean futures markets for daily price direction.
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On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
