House Democrats in red states across the country are at risk as the redistricting arms race heats up.
Texas Republicans’ proposed redraw, a President Trump-backed plan that could net the party five more House seats, has led to other red states moving forward with their own redistricting plans.
Florida, Indiana and Missouri are among the Republican-led states now weighing whether to redo their congressional maps — putting a number of Democratic incumbents at risk.
Here are the House Democrats most likely to be targeted across the country:
Greg Casar, Texas 35th
Republicans already control 25 of the 38 congressional seats in Texas, but the proposed changes could give them a 30-8 edge by slashing Democratic-controlled seats in Houston, Dallas and Austin-San Antonio.
One of the biggest proposed changes affects Rep. Greg Casar’s (D-Texas) 35th Congressional District, which went to former Vice President Harris by 33 points in November. The map would create a new +10 Trump district outside of San Antonio, according to analysis from Cook Political Report.
Casar has called the would-be destruction of his district “illegal voter suppression of Black and Latino Central Texans.”
Lloyd Doggett, Texas 37th
The Austin base of Casar’s current district would be pushed into the 37th Congressional District, now held by Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas).
The changes could set up a potential primary matchup between Casar and Doggett, who has accused Trump of “taking a hatchet to chop up Austin and our state with the sole objective of maintaining his one-man rule.”
Julie Johnson, Texas 32nd
The Texas plan would reshape the 32nd Congressional District, currently based in Dallas and held by Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas). By stretching the district into East Texas, it would become a +18 Trump seat, according to the Cook Political Report.
Johnson has been among the voices heralding Texas state House Democrats for fleeing the state to break quorum and stall “a rigged map.”
Marc Veasey, Texas 33rd
Rep. Marc Veasey’s would see his 33rd Congressional District likely remain blue, but the longtime lawmaker would probably lose his hometown and political base in the redrawing.
This could create a primary between Veasey and Johnson as the latter’s seat is reshaped, analysis from the Texas Tribune suggests, if they both decide to try and stay in the House.
Henry Cuellar, Texas 28th
Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D-Texas) seat in Texas’s 28th Congressional District would shift rightward, from a +7 Trump district to a +10 post.
The Cook Political Report says that Cuellar could “conceivably survive” the midterms, though he’s currently grappling with an ongoing criminal casethat could complicate any reelection prospects. Cuellar and his wife were indicted by a federal grand jury in Houston last year on charges of participating in a bribery scheme.
Vicente Gonzalez, Texas 34th
Like Cuellar, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) would see his 34th Congressional District seat get even redder, according to the Cook Political Report.
Gonzalez won reelection by just three points last year, so even a slight move toward the right could imperil reelection prospects. In a statement after the map’s release, however, Gonzalez pointed to Trump’s approval rating as he promised “we will win again.”
Al Green, Texas 9th
Rep. Al Green’s (D) seat in Texas’s 9th Congressional District would merge with the empty blue seat vacated by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D), yielding a more conservative 9th district in the suburbs of east Houston.
Al Green “almost certainly wouldn’t run” in the new 9th, the Cook Political Report forecasts, but he could run for the vacant 18th seat. Meanwhile, a special election is ongoing to fill the vacancy for Turner’s former seat.
Marcy Kaptur, Ohio 9th
Ohio is the one state that’s required to redistrict this year, after its 2022 maps failed to receive bipartisan support. Republicans boast a 10-5 majority in the current congressional delegation, and redistricting could mean a handful of Democrats see their districts get tougher.
Rep. Mary Kaptur (D) in Ohio’s 9th Congressional District is considered among the most vulnerable after winning a highly competitive race in 2024. Her district went to Trump by roughly 7 points last year, according to The Downballot.
Emilia Sykes, Ohio 13th
Like Kaptur, Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) in Ohio’s 13th Congressional District won a tight race in 2024 and has been targeted by the GOP as a potential pickup opportunity. The district was effectively tied between Trump and Harris in November.
“It’s no surprise that special interests in Washington and Columbus want to ignore the voters and rig the game,” Sykes campaign spokesman Justin Barasky told The Hill last month.
Rep. Greg Landsman (D) in the 1st Congressional District around Cincinnati could also be impacted, according to the Columbus Dispatch, though anti-gerrymandering rules approved by voters in 2018 prevents redistricting from breaking up the city.
Emanuel Cleaver, Missouri 5th
Missouri’s Republican Gov. Mike Kehoe has indicated he’ll look at the possibility of redistricting in the state, where Republicans control six of eight districts.
The Kansas City Star reported last month that Trump’s political team had expressed interest in trying to gain another Show Me State seat, which would likely be Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver’s 5th Congressional District in Kansas City.
Cleaver, who has been in the seat for two decades, won reelection with 60 percent of the vote last fall, after line changes in 2022. He told St. Louis Public Radio that the push for mid-decade redistricting is “very dangerous.”
Frank Mrvan, Indiana 1st
Republicans appear to be eyeing Indiana, where Democrats hold just two House seats, as another opening.
Amid redistricting chatter, Vice President Vance met on Thursday with Gov. Mike Braun (R), who would need to call a special session of the state General Assembly to initiate redrawing.
If Indiana were to redistrict, changes would likely squeeze the 1st Congressional District in the northwest, where Rep. Frank Mrvan (D) has already been named as a national GOP target for 2026.
“It is no surprise that some believe redistricting is the only option to cling to power when they know the American people are rejecting the damage done by the House Republican Majority,” Mrvan said in a statement.
A redraw could also affect Mrvan’s fellow Democrat, Rep. Andre Carson (D-Ind.), though the 7th Congressional District around Indianapolis may be somewhat safer, since breaking up blue voters in the area could make other Republican House districts more vulnerable.
Republicans hold the other seven House seats in Indiana.
Florida Democrats
Florida’s state House Speaker this week announced he’ll form a redistricting committee after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) signaled the Sunshine State could follow Texas’s lead.
There are just 8 House Democrats to 20 Republicans in Florida, and multiple blue seats could be endangered if a redraw moves forward.
Republicans are hoping to gain at least three seats in the Sunshine State, Punchbowl News reported this week.
One of the potential South Florida targets is Rep. Jared Moskowitz, who won reelection in November by five points in a district that went to Harris by just two points. Fellow South Florida Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and Lois Frankel could also be vulnerable, along with South Florida. Rep. Kathy Castor (D) in the Tampa area and Rep. Darren Soto (D) outside of Orlando.
All five of these Democrats won their 2024 races with less than 60 percent of the vote. Moskowitz and Soto are already on the GOP campaign arm’s target list.
“It’s called corruption when the only reason to redraw the maps is to hold onto power cause y’all are going to lose in ’26,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said on X.
Other lawmakers
Amid the Texas drama, chatter is percolating about redistricting possibilities in still more states.
An analysis from Sabato’s Crystal Ball forecasts there could be room for changes in North Carolina, where a new 2024 map netted the GOP three new seats, and in Kansas, which has just one blue seat — though it’s all but guaranteed that Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) wouldn’t call a special session to initiate talks.
Republican Rep. Ralph Norman in South Carolina has suggested a redraw that could target longtime Rep. Jim Clyburn, the state’s lone Democratic congressman, but the move is seen as unlikely given the already favorable 6-1 delegation split.
With the exception of Ohio, it remains unclear which states will ultimately go through with redistricting, as Texas Democrats’ dramatic quorum break stalls progress even in the Lone Star State.
And even for those who do, it’s not a guarantee that change could clear in time take effect before next fall’s high-stakes midterms.
Meanwhile, Democrats are looking to counter would-be GOP gains by weighing redistricting in blue strongholds, including California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has said he’s moving forward with a plan to put redistricting before voters this fall, which would be triggered by what happens in Texas.
